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Biting the Bullet - Who Could Solve Spam in 1 Year?
From a technology standpoint spam is a solvable problem. Only moderate changes would need to be made to SMTP to allow for "electronic postage" which would in effect "charge" computing cycles to anyone who wanted to send email.
After such changes to underlying protocols, other methods to filter email spam wouldn't be needed.
In short, it would limit a given computer to sending out only a certain number of messages in a certain period of time. Usually, it's not necessary for a desktop system to send out more than say 50 pieces of email in an hour. However if this limitation could somehow be universally enforced, it would make spam sending campaigns largely ineffective.
The problem is the, "no, you first" phenomenon. No one wants to be the first party to start rejecting messages from other people who haven't deployed whatever some new standard requires.
Still, a few email players are so large, they might be able to force the issue on the rest of the internet. Imagine if AOL started bouncing any email that was remotely suspicious (contained an image, was from out of country, or even just had a "$" sign in it) whenever it didn't have electronic postage proving it wasn't spam?
How long would it take for anyone serious about email to make sure their email client or server supported electronic postage?
The risk is high - but the real opportunity to finally kick spam in the butt exists. The gotcha is that by so aggressively blocking junk mail (and other legitimate messages) - they'd risk putting their users through hell.
So who could do it?
Microsoft
Microsoft controls a very large percentage of all email clients, and a moderate portion of the email server market. MS could hypothetically add "aggressive" filtering for messages not containing electronic postage to any future service release of Outlook, Windows Mail or Exchange server.
AOL
13 million AOL users can't be wrong! OK, maybe they are wrong - very wrong. Still, the numbers put AOL in a power position to help exterminate spam.
SpamAssassin
SpamAssassin is the defacto open-source anti-spam standard. Anything in the latest build of SpamAssassin will end up effecting millions of users in a short period of time.
A combination of others
Maybe Yahoo! and Gmail could team up? Earthlink and Qwest? A consortium of smaller players could have the same clout as a single larger company when trying to implement a new standard.
So again, the problem is solvable. It just requires that for a moment, some company decide to act against its own short-term best interest. OK, maybe the problem isn't solvable after all.
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